[h=1]Early- and late-round draft bargains[/h]
Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Houston Astros infielder Alex Bregman led my "Plant My Flag" article last season, but as a coveted selection in the early rounds coming off a breakout sophomore campaign, there would not be many chances to get him in a draft. Bregman went in Round 4 much of the time, and that meant if you wanted him, and were truly sure he would break out statistically even further, you had to reach a bit. In the end, Bregman got even better; he finished No. 26 on the Player Rater.
In hindsight, it seems wiser this season to highlight more players to get later in drafts, and more inexpensively in auctions. Oh, I still heart plenty of players in the early rounds that I am willing to reach a bit for, like Bregman last season. They are on the list below as well. Ultimately, the true test of which players I like more than most tends to come from the drafts/auctions in which I have already competed, and how I react with seconds to decide. Whom do I keep getting? It is easy to proclaim you would reach for -- or target -- a certain player, but until you must decide, you never know.
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[h=3]Top 100 overall hitters (ESPN ADP order, rotisserie scoring)[/h]
Alex Bregman, SS/3B, Houston Astros: Well, I have him firmly entrenched in Round 1, thinking the power can still rise and he will still run, and I see others do not. So there!
Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Chicago Cubs: What changed from a year ago when he was a borderline first-round pick? He hurt his shoulder. Now it is fine. Ridiculous overreacting by so many here.
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals: Building-block player with more upside left.
Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF, Kansas City Royals: It is not a good feeling when you look at your team in Round 15 and Javier Baez is your main stolen base option. Merrifield even in Round 3 is actually fine.
Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: He is hardly too old to mildly adjust his swing angle and double his home run total. I believe he bounces back as a top-50 option.
Nicholas Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers: Even bad teams supply 30-homer, 100-RBI options. He is 27. The best is yet to come.
Nelson Cruz, DH, Minnesota Twins: OK, so 37 is a minor problem. Wait, the number 37 also is how many home runs he hit in 2018? Yep, and he has averaged 41 blasts with 104 RBI the past five seasons? So underrated. Do not worry about "clogging" your utility spot with 37 home runs.
Scooter Gennett, 2B, Cincinnati Reds: Apparently his 2017 season was not a fluke after all. Good for you for investing. He is not such a bargain now, but he is a safe one.
[h=3]Later-round hitters[/h]Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox: Devers hit 21 home runs in his age-21 season. I think he will hit 30 in a season before his 25th birthday -- perhaps before his 23rd birthday. Get him in keeper formats before it is too late.
Adalberto Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals: I think someone in each league will reach earlier than I do, but let us just say that while acknowledging the batting average could be a problem, Mondesi makes my top 100 for the steals alone. He should make yours.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers: Watching him in the March games has convinced me he can still hit .300 and provide more than 20 home runs. I cannot claim he stays healthy for six months, but if it is Round 17 and he is coldly sitting there, sure.
ls: He is in my top 100, but his ADP is foolishly low. There are not many players likely to steal 30-plus bases, with some pop and batting average. Robles will.
Harrison Bader, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: Some concerns about his upside against right-handed pitching, but we have him projected for 16 home runs and 16 steals, kind of like Andrew Benintendi-lite. There really are not many of those fellows, especially in Round 17.
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/SS/3B, Texas Rangers: I have grown to appreciate this well-traveled infielder with multi-eligibility who has averaged .274 and 20 home runs the past three seasons. It works, late in a draft.
Paul DeJong, SS, St. Louis Cardinals: He hit .285 with 25 home runs in 108 games as a rookie. Then he got hurt last season. I still see a 30-homer season pending soon.
Jake Bauers, 1B/OF, Cleveland Indians: The Rays do not make many mistakes with young, affordable players, so that has me a bit concerned, but the Indians might lead him off against right-handed pitching. I think something good is pending.
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins: In the first 10 rounds, no. Not a chance for me. However, if he is sitting there in the 15th round, I pounce. All the upside from March 2018 remains and again, there simply are not enough stolen bases out there.
Tyler White, 1B, Houston Astros: I liked him, in retrospect a bit too much, when he was first promoted to the majors and he did not hit. White hit last year, though. I am surprised so many assume the Astros upgrade their DH spot. White is capable of hitting .300 with 20-plus home runs.
Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds: So is this fellow, and he leads off against right-handers.
Ramon Laureano, OF, Oakland Athletics: As with Bader, he is projected for a healthy number of home runs and steals -- not great, but enough -- and remains a bargain in the second half of a draft.
Domingo Santana, OF, Seattle Mariners: I am not saying he returns to the 2017 numbers when he hit .278 with 30 home runs and stole 15 bases, but I am also not not saying it. Santana is 26 and already achieved this. He can do so again as your fifth outfielder capable of being your No. 2 outfielder.
Niko Goodrum, 1B/2B, Detroit Tigers: Another player that does not figure to contend for a batting title, but we are also not talking about a Joey Gallo-type batting average. Goodrum hit .245. He has some pop and speed and you can get your middle infielder in the final round or in free agency.
[h=3]Starting pitchers (also ADP order)[/h]
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies: He is in my top five and Corey Kluber is not, for what it is worth.
Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians: I believe he can do it again, which is why he made my top 10.
Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks: He does not throw as hard as most in the top 20, but it is a great ERA and WHIP, 200 innings and strikeouts, and he wins.
Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals: He will not be striking out a hitter per inning, but the skill set looks safe to me for something close to a repeat.
Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians: I worry a bit about his ability to retire left-handed hitters, but he has excellent control and just whiffed more than a hitter per inning as a rookie. I have rostered Bieber in so many leagues already.
Jose Quintana, Chicago Cubs: He finally had a rough season, but remains durable and relatively consistent. I think a return to 2017 numbers makes sense.
Jhoulys Chacin, Milwaukee Brewers: We are talking about Round 25 or so here, but in each of his past two seasons he has been good enough to roster in a 10-team league. Durability matters, too.
Other pitchers: Joey Lucchesi, San Diego Padres; Mike Fiers, Oakland Athletics; Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves; Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers; Jakob Junis and Brad Keller, Kansas City Royals; Chase Anderson and Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers; Anibal Sanchez, Washington Nationals.
Relief pitchers: More on this in the coming weeks as I project the saves for each bullpen, but here are some names I am more comfortable with than others, since I will not select a reliever in the top 100. David Robertson, Philadelphia Phillies; Jose Leclerc, Texas Rangers; Kirby Yates, San Diego Padres; Corey Knebel, Milwaukee Brewers; Jordan Hicks, St. Louis Cardinals.
Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Houston Astros infielder Alex Bregman led my "Plant My Flag" article last season, but as a coveted selection in the early rounds coming off a breakout sophomore campaign, there would not be many chances to get him in a draft. Bregman went in Round 4 much of the time, and that meant if you wanted him, and were truly sure he would break out statistically even further, you had to reach a bit. In the end, Bregman got even better; he finished No. 26 on the Player Rater.
In hindsight, it seems wiser this season to highlight more players to get later in drafts, and more inexpensively in auctions. Oh, I still heart plenty of players in the early rounds that I am willing to reach a bit for, like Bregman last season. They are on the list below as well. Ultimately, the true test of which players I like more than most tends to come from the drafts/auctions in which I have already competed, and how I react with seconds to decide. Whom do I keep getting? It is easy to proclaim you would reach for -- or target -- a certain player, but until you must decide, you never know.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=3]Top 100 overall hitters (ESPN ADP order, rotisserie scoring)[/h]
Alex Bregman, SS/3B, Houston Astros: Well, I have him firmly entrenched in Round 1, thinking the power can still rise and he will still run, and I see others do not. So there!
Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Chicago Cubs: What changed from a year ago when he was a borderline first-round pick? He hurt his shoulder. Now it is fine. Ridiculous overreacting by so many here.
Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals: Building-block player with more upside left.
Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF, Kansas City Royals: It is not a good feeling when you look at your team in Round 15 and Javier Baez is your main stolen base option. Merrifield even in Round 3 is actually fine.
Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds: He is hardly too old to mildly adjust his swing angle and double his home run total. I believe he bounces back as a top-50 option.
Nicholas Castellanos, OF, Detroit Tigers: Even bad teams supply 30-homer, 100-RBI options. He is 27. The best is yet to come.
Nelson Cruz, DH, Minnesota Twins: OK, so 37 is a minor problem. Wait, the number 37 also is how many home runs he hit in 2018? Yep, and he has averaged 41 blasts with 104 RBI the past five seasons? So underrated. Do not worry about "clogging" your utility spot with 37 home runs.
Scooter Gennett, 2B, Cincinnati Reds: Apparently his 2017 season was not a fluke after all. Good for you for investing. He is not such a bargain now, but he is a safe one.
[h=3]Later-round hitters[/h]Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox: Devers hit 21 home runs in his age-21 season. I think he will hit 30 in a season before his 25th birthday -- perhaps before his 23rd birthday. Get him in keeper formats before it is too late.
Adalberto Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals: I think someone in each league will reach earlier than I do, but let us just say that while acknowledging the batting average could be a problem, Mondesi makes my top 100 for the steals alone. He should make yours.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers: Watching him in the March games has convinced me he can still hit .300 and provide more than 20 home runs. I cannot claim he stays healthy for six months, but if it is Round 17 and he is coldly sitting there, sure.
ls: He is in my top 100, but his ADP is foolishly low. There are not many players likely to steal 30-plus bases, with some pop and batting average. Robles will.
Harrison Bader, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: Some concerns about his upside against right-handed pitching, but we have him projected for 16 home runs and 16 steals, kind of like Andrew Benintendi-lite. There really are not many of those fellows, especially in Round 17.
Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/SS/3B, Texas Rangers: I have grown to appreciate this well-traveled infielder with multi-eligibility who has averaged .274 and 20 home runs the past three seasons. It works, late in a draft.
Paul DeJong, SS, St. Louis Cardinals: He hit .285 with 25 home runs in 108 games as a rookie. Then he got hurt last season. I still see a 30-homer season pending soon.
Jake Bauers, 1B/OF, Cleveland Indians: The Rays do not make many mistakes with young, affordable players, so that has me a bit concerned, but the Indians might lead him off against right-handed pitching. I think something good is pending.
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins: In the first 10 rounds, no. Not a chance for me. However, if he is sitting there in the 15th round, I pounce. All the upside from March 2018 remains and again, there simply are not enough stolen bases out there.
Tyler White, 1B, Houston Astros: I liked him, in retrospect a bit too much, when he was first promoted to the majors and he did not hit. White hit last year, though. I am surprised so many assume the Astros upgrade their DH spot. White is capable of hitting .300 with 20-plus home runs.
Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds: So is this fellow, and he leads off against right-handers.
Ramon Laureano, OF, Oakland Athletics: As with Bader, he is projected for a healthy number of home runs and steals -- not great, but enough -- and remains a bargain in the second half of a draft.
Domingo Santana, OF, Seattle Mariners: I am not saying he returns to the 2017 numbers when he hit .278 with 30 home runs and stole 15 bases, but I am also not not saying it. Santana is 26 and already achieved this. He can do so again as your fifth outfielder capable of being your No. 2 outfielder.
Niko Goodrum, 1B/2B, Detroit Tigers: Another player that does not figure to contend for a batting title, but we are also not talking about a Joey Gallo-type batting average. Goodrum hit .245. He has some pop and speed and you can get your middle infielder in the final round or in free agency.
[h=3]Starting pitchers (also ADP order)[/h]
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies: He is in my top five and Corey Kluber is not, for what it is worth.
Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians: I believe he can do it again, which is why he made my top 10.
Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks: He does not throw as hard as most in the top 20, but it is a great ERA and WHIP, 200 innings and strikeouts, and he wins.
Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals: He will not be striking out a hitter per inning, but the skill set looks safe to me for something close to a repeat.
Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians: I worry a bit about his ability to retire left-handed hitters, but he has excellent control and just whiffed more than a hitter per inning as a rookie. I have rostered Bieber in so many leagues already.
Jose Quintana, Chicago Cubs: He finally had a rough season, but remains durable and relatively consistent. I think a return to 2017 numbers makes sense.
Jhoulys Chacin, Milwaukee Brewers: We are talking about Round 25 or so here, but in each of his past two seasons he has been good enough to roster in a 10-team league. Durability matters, too.
Other pitchers: Joey Lucchesi, San Diego Padres; Mike Fiers, Oakland Athletics; Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves; Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers; Jakob Junis and Brad Keller, Kansas City Royals; Chase Anderson and Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers; Anibal Sanchez, Washington Nationals.
Relief pitchers: More on this in the coming weeks as I project the saves for each bullpen, but here are some names I am more comfortable with than others, since I will not select a reliever in the top 100. David Robertson, Philadelphia Phillies; Jose Leclerc, Texas Rangers; Kirby Yates, San Diego Padres; Corey Knebel, Milwaukee Brewers; Jordan Hicks, St. Louis Cardinals.
